Whiskey has an oversupply problem. In both bourbon and Scotch, stocks are way up, consumption is flat to down, and many producers are responding by slowing or pausing production, temporarily closing distilleries, and, in some cases, laying off staff. For companies that buy barrels of new-make or aged American whiskey to supply their brands, prices have dropped dramatically.
“There are some pretty fire-sale prices out there,” says Adam Polonski, co-founder of independent bottler Lost Lantern, which buys barrels from dozens of distilleries around the country.
John Little co-founded Smooth Ambler Distillery in 2009, when barrels of 7-year-old bourbon were as cheap as $600. Over the next 15 years, prices multiplied. Now, Little has started a new business with partner John Foster, and says that barrels of aged whiskey are 30 to 40 percent less expensive than they were four years ago.
“The days of 4-year-old inventory selling for $2,000 a barrel are long gone, and good,” Little says. “Because there is no way that was sustainable and there is no way that anybody can bottle 4- or 5-year-old products and be profitable. It doesn’t work.”
The picture for cask sales in Scotch is a bit more complex, but Joshua Hatton, co-founder of independent bottler Single Cask Nation, says that’s due to the category’s large number of whisky cask investment companies, which price their offerings far higher than traditional brokers. “Those higher prices are coming down but it’s still not to the level that they should be from an industry perspective,” Hatton says, explaining that the investment model has added multiple layers of middlemen, which drives up costs. On the other hand, he notes that he’s seeing a wider range of aged casks hit the market than in the recent past, as well as distilleries offering more new-make contracts, a sign of excess capacity.
The surplus can be seen on retail shelves, which are packed with more whiskeys than ever — and bottles staying put longer than they were just a couple of years ago. The usual supply-and-demand dynamics suggest that whiskey producers should be aiming to stimulate sales by lowering prices. That would be great news for consumers. But the reality is not as straightforward as just slashing the number on the shelf. Whether and when retail prices of whiskey decrease depends on a number of factors, some of which are well outside the control of the distiller or bottler.
What Goes Into the Price of a Whiskey
Setting a price for a bottle of whiskey involves more than just the cost of the liquid in the barrel. There’s the cost of the bottle, cork, and label; the marketing budget; shipping fees — not to mention layers of regulation and taxes, all of which get factored into what the consumer ultimately pays. The specifics and process vary by state and, if the whiskey is imported, it will encompass additional costs.
Within that framework, however, the pricing process starts with the supplier, be they a distiller, importer, or bottler. While some suppliers set a recommended retail price based on what they think the market will bear — especially if their releases are hyped — others are more circumspect.
“We price our whiskey primarily based on what we pay for it in the first place. We’re not picking a price that we think is what the market will accept,” Polonski says. “If we are able to buy for less we can generally price the whiskey for less. If it is on the higher end of the pricing spectrum, there’s something particularly special about it, like it’s older or very high proof or HAZMAT.”
Single Cask Nation sets prices using a formula that includes everything from bottling cost and U.K. duties to broker’s fees and tariffs, but Hatton says they still aim for a retail price of $10 for every year the whisky has been in cask. “The liquid is like the cheapest thing there is,” he explains. “Cask prices are coming down and that will help [lower the overall price], but it’s not going to be as helpful as people think.”
From the supplier, whiskey makes its way to the wholesaler, which marks it up and passes it on to the retailer, which has its own additional markup. By the time a bottle hits the shelf, at least three different entities — plus the federal, state, and sometimes local governments — have taken a cut that factors into the final price paid by the consumer.
How Pricing Can Be Changed
If a supplier wanted to lower prices to move more whiskey, the most obvious lever to pull would be their own. But most distillers and bottlers prefer to avoid lowering prices on regular products, especially if they think the downturn will be temporary: While a lower price might drive sales now, if the company needed to raise it later due to increased demand, it would risk turning off customers. Instead, suppliers may offer rebates or other promotions, where legal, to stimulate purchases, especially for volume-driven brands. Bottles with special selling points, like ultra-rare liquid or an extra-mature age statement, are less likely to need such incentives.
Ryan Maloney, owner of whiskey mecca Julio’s Liquors in Westborough, Mass., says that while “commodity” brands — the kind that come in 1.75-liter handles — might try to compete on price, consumers, especially knowledgeable ones, are skeptical when a whiskey suddenly seems too good to be true. “If one of the brands that’s been highly touted is all of a sudden lowering price and throwing it out there, they’re going to be like, what’s wrong with it? Is it not as good as it used to be?” he says.
“We price our whiskey primarily based on what we pay for it in the first place. We’re not picking a price that we think is what the market will accept.”
One way Maloney has been able to offer lower prices comes via volume discounts. Many wholesalers offer retailers better pricing per unit if they buy greater amounts. The retailer can then set a lower shelf price while maintaining its usual margin. While in recent years the best discounts were reserved for retailers that could afford a hefty outlay of cash, Maloney says that the quantities required for discounts have been getting smaller.
“Everything sells at a tier,” he explains, and the discount gets better with each ascending tier — five, 10, 20 cases, and so on. “The smart suppliers, with their wholesalers, are reducing the quantities that the retailer has to buy” to get the higher-tier discount, Maloney adds, which allows independent retailers like Julio’s to buy whiskey at a lower cost and pass the savings on to customers. “That means there’s more people with the best price available than there used to be,” he says.
The Added-Value Alternative
In the absence of widespread price reductions, many whiskey producers are aiming to compete in a different way: by giving drinkers more for their money.
“Most producers would rather retain brand value by improving their product with age, maturity, innovation, as opposed to taking a lower retail price,” Little says. He points to the 2025 release of Old Fitzgerald 7-Year-Old by Heaven Hill, priced at $60. “It’s a beautiful package. They brought an age statement in. If your product doesn’t look as good as theirs and have a similar age and price point, how are you going to compete in a market where the shelf is flooded?”
Little notes that Old Fitzgerald isn’t alone; plenty of whiskeys now boast new or renewed age statements. After discontinuing its 9-year-old age statement, Knob Creek brought it back in 2020, and in the following years added 12-, 15-, 18-, and 21-year-old versions. Glenmorangie took its Original single malt from 10 to 12 years old in 2024, while earlier this year sibling distillery Ardbeg released a new cask-strength 10-year-old. Maker’s Mark started putting age statements on Cask Strength; Buffalo Trace rolled out Eagle Rare 12-year-old; and the James B. Beam Distilling Co. debuted Old Grand-Dad 7-Year-Old. More such examples are coming.
Even brands that don’t introduce new age statements — a strategy that backfires in times of high demand and low supply, as evidenced by the boom of the aughts, when many age statements disappeared — may very well start integrating older whiskey into their standard products. Consumers won’t see a number on the label but could perceive it in the glass.
That goes for age-stated products, too; the age, after all, refers only to the youngest liquid in the bottle. “I think we’ll see some of those age-stated whiskeys taste even better because they’re going to start putting older liquid in there to help move some of that stock out,” Hatton says.
Producers will be differentiating themselves in other ways as well. “Because the market is a little slower, we have a little more time for innovation,” Little says. “As [companies] slow down their plants, they should have more time to implement even better quality control. The drinker is the beneficiary of that.”
No More Price Inflation
While pricing dynamics can get very granular for individual brands, there’s a macro trend that’s currently driving industry debate and reaction: de-premiumization, the reversal of the “trading up” pattern of the last two decades. As inflation, tariffs, and other economic pressures squeeze wallets, that trend has slowed, and may even be declining. The full picture is still emerging but it’s clear enough that the world’s biggest spirits company, Diageo, is planning to focus more on mass-market brands, which CEO Dave Lewis sees as a “significantly underrepresented” sector. On the company’s recent earnings call, Lewis was vague on pricing specifics for higher-end brands but many analysts believe that price cuts could be in store.
“Most producers would rather retain brand value by improving their product with age, maturity, innovation, as opposed to taking a lower retail price.”
Maloney has been advising whiskey producers he works with to try to price at or near $50. If a bottle is much higher than that, he says, “it better have a reason and it can’t be because you want to get more money.” That might have flown a few years ago but the market has changed. “This artificial price inflation because people are getting that type of money is gone,” Maloney says. “Now everybody’s going to have to work.”
The work will get even harder when the whiskey market reaches its nadir, which is still ahead. Whiskey operates on long timeframes, after all, and the efforts that companies are making today to mitigate their surplus problem aren’t quick fixes — especially when everyone else, large and small, has the same problem.
“Companies will realize that you can’t sell 20,000 barrels for the value they’re being secured at and come to the real conclusion that, in order to get rid of them, you have to take a loss,” Little says. “When somebody’s really willing to do that, then I think we’ll find out what the bottom is.”
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