If you’ve been outside of the U.S. for a while, several things might surprise you when you return. Cars and trucks are somehow even bigger than before. Fewer people smoke. And flavored whiskey is everywhere.
At least that’s how things looked to me recently, on my first trip back home since before the pandemic. From news reports, I was prepared for the first two shifts. But on my first night visiting family, I realized that flavored whiskey had grown more than I’d expected when my brother reached for a bottle of Skrewball to make a drink.
That peanut butter whiskey brand was practically unknown at the time of my last visit in 2019, having just launched in a limited release the year before; after less than five years on the market, it was purchased by Pernod-Ricard in May 2023. Sazerac’s Fireball was already huge when I was last stateside, but still not in the position it holds today, as Dave Williams, an analyst at Bump Williams Consulting, explained when I asked him about how flavor is shifting the current whiskey market.
“Where do you think Fireball ranks among all spirits brands — not just whiskey — in terms of sales?” he asked. “It’s the No. 2 spirits brand. Bigger than Jack Daniel’s. Bigger than Jim Beam. So that’ll tell you the role that flavor has the ability to play in the spirits world.”
For better or worse, it’s now obvious that flavored whiskey has broadly changed North American drinking culture. But when it comes to the finer points, there’s a lot to learn about what has happened in the wake of Fireball’s exceptional growth.
A Category Leader
Outranked only by bestselling Tito’s Vodka, the cinnamon-flavored Canadian whisky’s silver medal in overall spirits sales counts as a coup, especially considering that the Fireball brand only dates to 2007, after the Sazerac Company bought it, renamed it and launched it nationally. Other producers responded to Fireball’s steady subsequent growth with their own flavored whiskeys, like Crown Royal, which originally released its Regal Apple flavor in 2014, Peach in 2019, and Blackberry this year; or Jack Daniel’s, which first come out with Tennessee Honey in 2011, followed by its cinnamon-flavored Fireball imitator, Fire, in 2015, with its Apple variation appearing in 2019.
According to Williams, five of those brands currently cover the vast majority of retail sales for flavored whiskey, citing year-to-date figures from global marketing research firm NIQ. Naturally, Fireball is far and away the market leader, followed by the three Crown Royal flavors — Apple, Peach and Blackberry — then Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Honey.
While the flavored whiskey sector has been growing for almost 20 years, it greatly accelerated over the last five, according to Hasan Bakir, senior director for economic studies at the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States (DISCUS).
“Flavored whiskey volumes increased by 34 percent from 2019 to 2023,” he says. “In 2023, flavored whiskeys accounted for 24 percent of total whiskey volume, up from 20 percent in 2019.”
Technically, most of these drinks aren’t true whiskeys, which must be bottled with at least 40 percent alcohol by volume (ABV), according to regulations, meaning a minimum of 80 proof. Jack Daniel’s calls its 70 proof, 35 percent ABV Tennessee Fire a “cinnamon spice liqueur,” while the 30 percent ABV Jameson Orange is labeled as a “spirit drink.” In an age of overproof, “hazmat” bourbons, the low alcohol level in flavored whiskeys is the opposite — and might even be part of their appeal.
“These big brands have essentially a shelf block, where you’re going to see three or four flavors of Jack, and three or four flavors of Jim Beam, and three or four players of Crown Royal. In the on-premise, that doesn’t happen, because if a product doesn’t sell, they don’t keep reordering it.”
Union, a company that supplies point-of-sale systems to more than a thousand high-volume bars and restaurants across the U.S., has its own data on how people order and drink flavored whiskeys when they’re out.
As Union chief growth officer Gary Ross explains, those recent numbers differ slightly from the NIQ numbers for retail, or off-premise sales. But in both, there’s a clear leader.
“In the on-premise, almost half — 48 percent — of flavored whiskey sales is Fireball,” he says. “It is a category dominated by a single player.”
Unusual Market Differences
Union’s dataset displays some interesting nuances, however. According to its numbers, the last four of the top five are Crown Royal Regal Apple; Crown Royal Peach, Skrewball, and Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Fire, among 2024 on-premise sales through October. Those five bottles accounted for 84 percent of all flavored whiskey sales registered by Union this year. After that, Ross says, there’s a long tail of also-rans, with much smaller shares.
In part, on-premise sales are bound to be different, since most retail stores have space to stock a larger variety of bottles.
“Think about the nature of the off-premise,” Ross continues. “These big brands have essentially a shelf block, where you’re going to see three or four flavors of Jack, and three or four flavors of Jim Beam, and three or four players of Crown Royal. In the on-premise, that doesn’t happen, because if a product doesn’t sell, they don’t keep reordering it.”
As such, bars and restaurants that use Union’s platform tend to have a limited range: 79 percent have at least one flavored whiskey, while only 48 percent have at least three flavored whiskeys.
“You don’t really see the $60 single malt Scotch with flavors. So by definition, the average pricing on flavored whiskeys is lower, which also kind of makes sense if you’re a shot brand.”
“So a lot of bars have Fireball, and some bars have more than just Fireball, but it does fall off a decent chunk,” he says.
The way people drink flavored whiskey in bars and restaurants differs from how traditional whiskey is usually consumed. In Union’s dataset, some 48 percent of flavored whiskey is sold as a shot, versus only 13 percent for whiskey overall.
Over-indexing in the shot format means that flavored whiskey is lower ranked in other serving methods. While about 28 percent of all whiskey orders in Union’s dataset are “with cola,” that’s only true for 19 percent of flavored whiskey. Some 23 percent of standard whiskey orders are served “neat” or “on the rocks,” while those two categories account for just 10 percent of flavored whiskey sales.
While Crown Royal did recently release a 23-year-old expression with apple flavoring, most flavored versions of the brand are priced close to the standard, non-flavored Crown Royal, and there usually isn’t a similar relationship for ultra-premium whiskey brands that could even things out. As such, it’s hardly surprising that flavored whiskey has a lower average price.
“You don’t really see the $60 single malt Scotch with flavors,” he says. “So by definition, the average pricing on flavored whiskeys is lower, which also kind of makes sense if you’re a shot brand.”
Another data point: The average cost of “calling” for a particular flavored whiskey in a cocktail is less than that of a regular whiskey — an extra $6.61 versus $8.55, respectively, in Union’s dataset. In fact, that gap has widened in recent years, with inflation apparently hitting standard whiskey harder than flavored whiskey. According to Union, the average upcharge for a non-flavored whiskey call in a mixed drink has increased by 14 percent since 2022, while the average additional cost for flavored whiskey grew by only 7 percent over the same period.
“Brands like Jack Daniel’s and Jim Beam, core whiskeys and bourbons, those brands are down year-over-year. Crown Royal whiskey is down. Their family is up, because of their flavors.”
According to Ross, flavored whiskey has a different role in bars when compared to vodka, for which a range of five or six flavors might be stocked.
“In the whiskey space, we don’t see that as much,” he says. “I think that’s largely because it’s whatever shot is popular at that account or in that region at the time. If everyone’s ordering Jack Fire, they don’t necessarily need Jack Honey.”
A final difference in the flavored whiskey landscape: regionality. Flavored whiskey appears to be extremely trendy in some areas, but not very popular at all in others. For example, flavored whiskey made up 16.4 percent of total on-premise whiskey sales in Texas so far this year, according to Union, but only 4.9 percent of similar sales in New York.
“We don’t usually see differences like that,” Ross says.
That gap, he notes, could be attributed to a single brand. And this time, it’s not Fireball.
“Crown Apple is kicking butt in Texas, and not doing as much in New York,” he says. “To be fair, overall, Crown has a higher share in Texas than in New York, but not enough to drive that kind of difference.”
Waves of Flavors
If that’s where things stand in the world of flavored whiskey, how exactly did we get here?
“Consumers have been consistently, through their purchase behavior, saying they want flavor, they want variety, they want choice, and they’re moving away from a lot of the established flagship brands.”
For Williams, the concept of “flavor” has been a growing topic in many drinks categories in recent years. While wine, based on grapes, is inherently flavor-forward, other sectors have started emphasizing flavor in their marketing and branding, rather than concepts like “authenticity” or “luxury,” possibly inspired by the shift in craft brewing a generation ago, and then given a further push by the recent growth of flavor-focused, ready-to-drink beverages (RTDs) and fermented malt beverages (FMBs).
For many drinks categories, flavors seem to come in waves. One year, citrus is hot. The next year, it might be oak barrels or berries.
“When you look at how the flavors innovate within beer, it was apple, it was peach, it was blood orange for a while,” he says. “It cycles.”
Asked if flavored whiskey represents a “dumbing down” for historic brands, Williams disagrees. It’s more like a case of survival and necessity, he says — a way for big producers to reach new customers in a tough market, where many consumers move away from established names.
“Brands like Jack Daniel’s and Jim Beam, core whiskeys and bourbons, those brands are down year-over-year,” he says. “Crown Royal whiskey is down. Their family is up, because of their flavors.”
As such, the growth of flavored whiskey seems to represent a realignment, or even a switch in the power dynamic. Legacy brands of all types used to be able to count on their history and status among consumers to maintain their market positions. Not anymore.
“Consumers are in the driver’s seat,” he says. “Consumers have been consistently, through their purchase behavior, saying they want flavor, they want variety, they want choice, and they’re moving away from a lot of the established flagship brands.”
That doesn’t mean new consumers aren’t actively seeking out new products. It just means that they’re not doing it the way they used to.
“Not everybody’s looking for that classic entry point, like a Jack Daniel’s whiskey,” he says. “They’re finding their entrance into these categories via flavor.”
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