The wine industry will soon hit rock bottom, according to the Silicon Valley Bank 2026 State of the U.S. Wine Industry Report. The report, released today, forecasts a low point for the industry in 2027 or 2028, but it projects steady growth to pre-COVID-19 levels by 2040.
“The bottom will come when it comes,” says Rob McMillan, executive vice president and founder of Silicon Valley Bank’s wine division. “In the meantime, you’ve got to adjust, and the quicker you adjust, the more likely you’re going to succeed coming out the other side.”
Another point emphasized in the report is an increasingly prevalent bifurcation between successful and unsuccessful wineries in the American wine landscape. Profitable institutions have implemented an audience-focused outlook, whereas those in the red continue to dwell on the headwinds, McMillan says.
The third touchpoint of the report is that 2025’s year-end dips in volume and value were not as drastic as anticipated last year: The volume of cases sold in the U.S. only dropped by 2.05 percent from 2024, and revenue ebbed by just 1.6 percent.
The annual SVB report is considered a beacon for year-end analysis, data-backed insights, and trend forecasts in the U.S. wine industry. In its 26 years, this report is the first to include a section dedicated to helping wineries plan for the future, dubbed the “Success guide.” McMillan emphasizes the crucial importance of beginning to reroute marketing and advertising tactics now, ahead of the forthcoming bottom.
“You can find the rock bottom, but don’t wait for it,” he cautions.
The report analyzes and summarizes the strategies implemented by top-performing wineries in 2025 to offer others advice on how to move forward. Primarily, wineries must identify and prioritize Gen Z’s values — particularly sustainability and modern aesthetics.
“I started seeing the differences between generations, and I looked at who was in the tasting room serving,” McMillan says. “It was my generation, people with gray hair. If you want to attract a younger consumer, you need some people that cuss a little bit, and they’ve got tattoos on them and maybe gauges in their ears.”
McMillan also found that successful establishments heavily invest in consumer engagement. On average, a given winery in the U.S. received 68 percent of its revenue from DTC sales in 2025, according to the report. But visitation rates slumped in the same period. Leveraging success in DTC while guest turnout is low requires traveling throughout the country to market to potential buyers, McMillan adds. Producers can also leverage artificial intelligence to collect their main audiences’ zipcodes and invest in customer outreach in those hotspots, he says.
But reaching customers only gets you so far, he continues — wineries need to cater their strategies to the values of younger drinkers to see a bolstered consumer base in the future.
“The first sale is important,” McMillan explains. “But what’s more important is the second.”
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